Macro factors boost tin prices, while tug-of-war between sellers and buyers limits gains [SMM Tin Midday Review]

SHFE Tin Midday Commentary on July 22, 2025

​​As of the midday session on July 22, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closed at 266,610 yuan/mt, up 0.39%; LME three-month tin closed at $33,680/mt, up 0.01%.

Domestic "anti-rat race" policies intensify: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to promote the elimination of outdated capacity in industries such as non-ferrous metals. Active liquidity has driven a general rise in the non-ferrous metals sector, with tin prices following the sector's upward sentiment.

The US dollar index is in the doldrums: The US Fed's independence is being tested by political pressures, reducing the price pressure on LME.

Domestic tin concentrate TCs have fallen to their lowest levels since the beginning of the year. Losses have widened for refineries in Yunnan and Guangxi, suppressing the flexibility of refined tin output.

​​Sluggish spot trades: High prices have curbed downstream procurement, with some enterprises exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment.

​​Capital game: Bulls have increased their positions, mainly concentrated at institutional seats, reflecting a bet on the continuation of policy dividends; industrial hedging positions have been established at higher levels, limiting upside potential.

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